Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
